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Sam Harris has made no secret of the fact that he and Elon Musk had a falling out. But Harris was always loath to offer details as to why – until Wednesday.
In a Substack post, Harris explained that the beginning of the end of their friendship came in the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Harris remarked, “Among all the extraordinary individuals I've encountered, Elon stands out as the one most poised to be a figure of historical significance—regardless of his attempts to play the fool. At the same time, he seems to be the one most at risk of wasting his vast chances for happiness, damaging his reputation and crucial relationships, and causing enduring negative effects worldwide. When we first crossed paths, none of this was apparent to me, and I have been truly astonished by Elon’s transformation, both personally and as a symbol of disorder.”
Harris recalled first meeting Musk in the late 2000s when Tesla was struggling to make payroll. According to Harris, Musk was living off loans from Google co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin, and was nothing like the person he sees in Musk today.
In March 2020, Musk posted a tweet that became widely recognized during the initial phase of the pandemic, which caught Harris's eye.
“The coronavirus pandemic is dumb,” Musk tweeted.
Harris remembered:
Worried about him, I decided to reach out with a personal message:
Hey, bro— I really think you should reconsider your tweet about the coronavirus. I understand there’s a way to interpret it that makes sense (“panic” is never a good idea), but I worry that’s not how most people are perceiving it. You have a huge following, and many people see you as a go-to source for technical matters. The coronavirus situation is extremely serious, and if we don’t act swiftly, we could find ourselves in a situation similar to Italy’s very soon. If you’re considering mobilizing some engineers to tackle this issue, now would be an ideal time to innovate in ventilator production…
As per Harris's account, Musk responded:
Sam, of all people, you really shouldn't worry about this.
Following some more discussions and negotiations, the two friends came to an agreement on a wager:
During our two-hour discussion, Elon and I couldn't agree on a shared perspective regarding epidemiology, but we did come up with an entertaining compromise: a wager. Elon proposed a bet of $1 million (to be donated to charity) against a bottle of premium tequila worth $1,000, wagering that the number of Covid cases in the United States wouldn't reach 35,000 (focusing on cases, not fatalities). He believed the odds were heavily in his favor, estimating a near certainty (1000 to 1) that he was correct. Given that I had already encountered credible forecasts suggesting there could be up to 1 million Covid-related deaths in the U.S. over the following 12 to 18 months (which later turned out to be fairly accurate), I found the terms of his bet absurd—and rather unfair to him. I proposed to give him a significant advantage, suggesting that we could see as many as 3.5 million Covid cases in the U.S. Elon thought I had completely lost my grip on reality and insisted we maintain the limit at 35,000 cases.
Harris said that once the Centers for Disease Control reported 35,000 deaths from Covid in the U.S., he texted Musk with the figures. The billionaire never responded:
Is (35,000 deaths + 600,000 cases) > 35,000 cases?
…It seems that this message marked the conclusion of our friendship. Elon chose not to reply, and soon after, he began to slander me on Twitter over a range of fabricated accusations. In response, I found myself discussing the shocking decline of his integrity on my podcast, although I refrained from revealing specifics about our falling out.
Harris mentioned that he removed Twitter/X from his devices following Musk's takeover of the platform in 2022. He acknowledged the toxic impact it had on his own life, but also felt compelled to act due to the changes he observed in Elon.
It was the second time this week that Harris hit back at his former friend. On Bill Maher’s Club Random this week, Harris said that when he asked Musk to stop “defaming” him on social media, the billionaire replied, “Go fuck yourself.”